The ‘China Factor’ in Pakatan Harapan’s GE14 Campaign

The proposed route for the Chinese Belt and Road-funded East Coast Rail Link

I recently published an article on Malaysia’s GE14 in The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs. In it, I argue that Pakatan Harapan’s successful campaign rhetoric managed and redirected racialised voter concerns about ethnic Chinese Malaysians so that enough Malay Muslim voters were able to vote for Pakatan despite Barisan Nasional’s campaign rhetoric directed at the DAP.

The campaign targeted Barisan’s connection with mainland China and the CCP through the large Chinese projects around the peninsula, associated with Belt and Road Initiative, arguing that the 1MDB scandal and the taint of debt and corruption associated with Barisan was the “true” Chinese threat to Malaysia, not the DAP.

Race, Debt and Sovereignty – The ‘China Factor’ in Malaysia’s GE14

Discussion about China, Chinese projects, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) featured prominently in Malaysia’s 2018 election campaign, prompting widespread international debate since May about the new government’s foreign policy aims and direction. In contrast to views that Malaysia is now ‘pushing back’ against China, this article argues that China’s role in the election cannot be understood without considering the ways in which it was deployed by Pakatan Harapan (PH) to communicate with voters about domestic issues. Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad successfully used his opponents’ connections with China and the BRI to externalise voters’ concerns about ethnic Chinese political power in Malaysia, transferring these concerns on to the People’s Republic instead. PH’s campaign also connected Chinese projects with issues of debt and corruption, allowing Mahathir to portray his opponent, Prime Minister Najib Razak, along with the 1Malaysia Development Berhad scandal, as key sources of sovereign risk for Malaysia and Malaysians.

Adelaide Festival of Ideas Panel: Good Things Sometimes Happen

I took part in a fantastic panel discussion alongside Assistant Professor Noura Erakat and chaired by Peter Mares at the Adelaide Festival of Ideas this morning.

I offered my take on the recent success of Malaysia’s Pakatan Harapan, and its campaign that was able to overcome an electoral system rigged against an opposition win. We discussed whether or not it is truly possible for Malaysia to build a rejuvenated and peaceful multi-racial society and institutions, and what hope there is for political reconciliation for the Palestinians.

The event was presented by the Australian Friends of Palestine Association (AFOPA), the School of Social Sciences at The University of Adelaide and the 2018 Adelaide Festival of Ideas, and you can listen to a recording of it here.

Panel Discussion: Malaysia’s Historic Election Result… what next?

Image: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

I enjoyed being part of this panel hosted by The Lowy Institute’s Director of the Southeast Asia Project, Aaron Connelly, where I was joined by James Chin, Director of the Asia Institute Tasmania, and Kean Wong, contributing editor at New Mandala.

We discussed how the newly elected coalition will address fundamental social issues, such as those of race and ethnicity; the relationship between PM Mahathir and Anwar Ibrahim; the culpability of former PM Najib Razak with regard to the 1MDB scandal; how UMNO will adapt to life as the opposition; and what Malaysia’s change in government means for Australia.

You can also listen to the panel discussion here through The Lowy Institute channel on Soundcloud.

Big China vs local Chinese: Mahathir’s Clever Campaign Strategy

(Photo: Australian Institute of International Affairs)

Here’s an article I’ve written based on my presentation at the AIIA ACT Branch on 23 May, where I discussed Dr Mahathir’s historic election victory and how the winning Pakatan Harapan coalition flipped the ‘China threat’ on its head, separating in their campaign narrative the external ‘Big’ (or really mainland) China from local Chinese that are part of Malaysian society.

Flipping the Chinese Threat: How the Malaysian Opposition Won

Corruption, the cost of living and social inequality helped drive Malaysia towards a change of government on 9 May. However, these factors were already present when a strong push failed to topple the government in 2013. What changed in 2018 to allow the opposition to achieve this historic win?

Read more

Lecture at the AIIA: How the Opposition Won a Historic Election in Malaysia

Former and current Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Photo: AIIA.

On Wednesday 23rd May at 6pm, I’ll be giving a talk at the Australian Institute of International Affairs (ACT branch).

I’ll share my thoughts on how the Pakatan Harapan coalition led by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad managed to win a historic election victory, through a carefully crafted campaign narrative of a multiracial people defeating a corrupt government that was ready to mortgage the nation to China.

You can buy tickets to see my talk from the AIIA website.

Article in The Interpreter: What’s Next for Malaysia?

Petronas Towers, Kuala Lumpur (Photo: David McKelvey/Flickr)

The Interpreter has published an article of mine that analyses the immediate post-election situation in Malaysia; as the country adjusts to a non-Barisan Nasional government for the first time, many decisions must be made by the new Harapan coalition government over how to implement the reforms Malaysians have shown they want. The defeated UMNO Party’s next moves are yet to be determined, while Malaysia’s new leader Mahathir Mohamad has announced to the world that Malaysia is open to most foreign investment. Mahathir is also moving fast to reinstate an investigation into now resigned UMNO leader Najib Razak’s connection with the 1MDB scandal, preventing Najib from leaving the country on the weekend.

Malaysia: what now?

Malaysians have rejected Barisan Nasional so overwhelmingly that the electoral system designed to protect its rule has been overcome. The party received its lowest popular vote in history, around 36%, and won only 79 seats in a 222-seat federal parliament.

The once multiracial coalition has been stripped back to 54 seats held by core party United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), with another 13 held by United Bumiputera Heritage Party (PBB), UMNO’s partner in Sarawak state. There is barely any representation left from its other component parties, including the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress.

On Sunday night, police cordoned off defeated former prime minister Najib Razak’s street, after Malaysia’s new leader Mahathir Mohamad stopped him from leaving the country on the weekend. Mahathir is moving fast to reinstate an investigation into Najib’s connection with the billions of dollars missing from Malaysia’s 1MDB development investment company.

The rout has been comprehensive. Before the election, however, Malaysians weren’t prepared to give their voting intentions away without a lot of careful prompting. Read more

Najib trying to Buy Time? A Nervous Day for Malaysian Voters.

Wan Azizah will serve as Malaysia’s first deputy prime minister. Photo: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images

In the wake of an unprecedented opposition win in Malaysia on Wednesday, voters are concerned about whether or not Najib will respect the decision of the public as he said he would in a remarkable concession speech that sounded less like conceding defeat and more like trying to buy time. Read my essay published in Inside Story for more details!

Malaysia’s Day on Edge

Having won the most seats, the opposition parties endured twenty-four hours of suspense. Was the old government working on plan B?

“We’ve asked the sultans not to be on the wrong side of history,” a Pakatan Harapan candidate told me in a posh cafe in Kuala Lumpur in February. “They should not emulate the Indonesian royalty during the Indonesian revolution,” he continued, referring to East Indies rulers who sided with the Dutch on the eve of Indonesian independence. “We are very confident. Very confident.”

I sensed his confidence was genuine, and it was vindicated on Wednesday this week when a surge of public support for Harapan, the opposition coalition, overwhelmed all the obstacles built into Malaysia’s electoral system — a system that has tipped the scales in the government’s favour in contests with successive opposition coalitions over the past six decades. The result will also deliver another important first for Malaysian society, a woman deputy prime minister, Wan Azizah. (Azizah’s husband, Anwar Ibrahim, is still in prison and was unable to run.)

Despite stating repeatedly that he will not be seeking revenge against vanquished prime minister Najib Razak and his allies, Malaysia’s new leader, Mahathir Mohamad, had to wait for most of Thursday to get an audience with the King. Only then was he sworn in and able to form a new government. The ceremony finally took place at 9.30 last night in Kuala Lumpur. Najib tweeted his congratulations and an assurance that he would assist in a smooth transfer of power.

Read more

A Narrative of Kleptocrats: East Asia Forum Op-Ed

Photo: East Asia Forum

Today East Asia Forum has published an op-ed that I wrote (which initially appeared as an essay on Inside Story) on the opposition’s narrative of Big China and reminding voters about the 1MDB scandal.

One Malaysia, two Chinas

The Merdeka Centre and other pollsters are predicting that the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition will come out on top of Malaysia’s election on 9 May. This is hardly a bold prediction after 13 similar wins stretching back to Malaya’s transition to independence in the mid-1950s.

One thing that makes this election different is a focus on the role of two Chinas — the ‘Big China’ of development loans and foreign policy deals and the local Chinese community, which tends to support the opposition. On Facebook and the encrypted carrier WhatsApp, the fracturing of Malaysia’s biggest and once-stable voting bloc — the nation’s majority Malay Muslims — is evident in debates raging in text and video about who is to blame for cost-of-living pressures: China or the Chinese?

Read more

ANU Malaysia Institute Seminar Panel

Photo: McKay Savage/Flickr

Today I was part of an expert panel alongside Dr John Funston, Dr Ross Tapsell, and Ms Diana Anuar (Discussant and Chair) discussing how each party will run their campaigns in the buildup to Malaysia’s 14th General Election; my focus was on how China has become central to the election.

The panel was covered by New Mandala here.

Scroll To Top